SM Energy: A Look At Its Potential 2023 Results (NYSE:SM)

SM Vitality (NYSE:SM) not too long ago instituted a $500 million share repurchase program along with its elevated dividend of $0.15 per share per quarter. It has not disclosed its 2023 plans but, however I consider it may roughly maintain whole manufacturing flat in comparison with 2022 and enhance its oil minimize barely whereas additionally producing near $800 million in constructive money stream (earlier than money earnings taxes) at present strip costs.

SM’s 2H 2022 manufacturing was negatively affected by delayed effectively completions and impacts from offset exercise, however its manufacturing must be stronger in early 2023. Along with repurchasing shares, SM additionally has the choice to redeem a few of its excellent unsecured notes. These notes have cheap rates of interest although, so SM will not be in a rush to redeem them although.

Potential 2023 Outlook

I’m at present modeling SM’s 2023 manufacturing at 145,000 BOEPD (48% oil), though it has not disclosed its plans for 2023 but. That is primarily the identical as SM’s anticipated 2022 common day by day manufacturing, together with a modest enhance in SM’s oil minimize.

With the pure gasoline strip for 2023 now down considerably versus just a few months in the past, I’ve assumed that SM’s 2023 improvement plans focus extra on the Midland Basin together with the oilier parts of its South Texas acreage.

At present 2023 strip of high-$70s WTI oil together with $4.30 NYMEX gasoline, I undertaking that SM will thus generate $2.58 billion in revenues after hedges. I’ve assumed a reasonably vital pure gasoline differential at detrimental $1.05 to NYMEX for 2023. SM realized constructive $1.01 to NYMEX in 2021, though this deteriorated to detrimental $0.62 in Q3 2022.

SM’s 2023 hedges have round detrimental $18 million in worth at present strip. On this manufacturing situation, it has roughly 24% of its 2023 oil manufacturing together with 28% of its 2023 pure gasoline manufacturing hedged.

Click on to enlarge

I’ve modeled $975 million in capital expenditures for SM in 2023, which is roughly 10% above its 2022 finances. This displays the influence of value inflation. SM’s lease working expense is modeled primarily based on This fall 2022 ranges, whereas its transportation prices are modeled barely decrease than This fall 2022 ranges primarily based on SM’s expectations for a lower in South Texas transportation prices in mid-2023.

Click on to enlarge

This ends in a projection that SM can generate $781 million in constructive money stream in 2023 at present strip earlier than dividends. SM’s present quarterly dividend of $0.15 per share provides as much as round $74 million in dividends per 12 months.

This does not embrace any potential influence from money earnings taxes.

Return Of Capital

Along with rising its mounted dividend from a semi-annual cost of $0.01 per share to a quarterly dividend of $0.15 per share, SM has began repurchasing shares. It at present has the authorization to spend as much as $500 million on share repurchases and spent roughly $20 million in Q3 2022 to repurchase 453,000 shares.

SM had $498 million in money available on the finish of Q3 2022 and it may theoretically redeem a few of its excellent unsecured notes throughout 2023 along with repurchasing shares. The rates of interest on its unsecured notes are cheap (starting from 5.625% to six.75%) and its subsequent maturity is not till June 2025, so it might resolve to take its time redeeming its unsecured notes although.

Notes On Valuation

SM’s worth (as a one-year goal value) is now estimated at roughly $47 per share in a situation with long-term (after 2023) $70 WTI oil and $4.00 NYMEX gasoline. This additionally assumes that SM’s realized pure gasoline value averages near NYMEX within the long-term. Every detrimental $0.30 enhance in long-term pure gasoline differentials reduces SM’s estimated worth by roughly $1 per share.

Conclusion

SM Vitality ought to see its manufacturing rebound from 2H 2022 ranges in 2023 and I’m modeling its whole 2023 manufacturing as roughly flat in comparison with 2022, together with a barely greater oil minimize. The lower in anticipated near-term pure gasoline costs in all probability will lead to SM shifting capital to oilier areas.

At present strip for 2023, SM might be able to generate near $800 million in constructive money stream. This may assist fund its share repurchases in addition to doubtlessly enable it to redeem a few of its unsecured notes. SM already has almost $500 million in money available and its subsequent notice maturity is not till June 2025, so it’s in fairly good condition debt smart.